Risk assessment

Introduction
Risk assessment involves arriving at an estimate of the likelihood of future acts. Risk assessment is important throughout the adjudication process. It is often carried out for dispositional purposes and in the determination of various actions. In various situations decisions are often predicated, partially, on the basis of risk assessment outcomes. Thus, the accurate assessment of future risk is important to clinicians and policymakers. Recidivism rates for sex offenders vary considerably depending on various factors. The variables include the types of victims that the individual targets, previous offenses and conviction. The ability to make determination about risk is often performed through assessment of various individual factors. Clinical judgment is important part of risk assessment. However, assessment rooted in empirical foundations based on idiosyncratic experience is significantly important. These assessments are important as they illicit information on offender’s risk of re-offending. These factors include sexual arousal to minors, past criminal history, past sexual offenses, victims, absence of age-appropriate relationships and physiological factors. Given the importance of assessments, numerous risk factors have been studied to determine how they predict re-offense. The paper will discuss a case based on estimates of the likelihood that an offender will revert to criminal sexual behavior after intervention for a prior criminal act.

Discussion
Being a probation officer with a specialized caseload of sexual offenders, I would choose the first case. The case involves a 50-year-old repeat offender who began talking openly about his sexual attraction to a particular boy. The choice is based on the risk assessment factors that predict the probability that a sex offender will recidivate. The presence of arousal patterns or deviant sexual interests can be identified in this case. The individual has a preference for deviant stimuli for children (Vitacco et al., 2009). The repeat child molester has talked openly about his sexual attraction to a particular boy. Evidently, the offender prefers sexual relations with children over sexual relationships with age-appropriate partners. Because the type of interests or preferences is so strong, it can be a significant driving force behind propensity to re-offend. Research suggests a strong link between sexual deviance and sexual recidivism (Hawes & Boccaccini, 2013).

The understanding of sexual deviance among offenders is quite clear. Sexual offenders are resistant to treatment. However, the combinations of different features pose a great risk of recidivism. The potential risk of recidivism rates of sex offenders informs the treatment or interventions necessary. The risk levels of the particular individual are high due. Additionally, child molesters tend to have high rates of repeat offenses due to the chronic nature of their pathology (Vitacco et al., 2009). Recidivistic sexual offenders are expected to hold deviant behavior that eases the commission of repeat offense. The open confession by the individual, in this case, provides a fertile ground for maintenance of deviant sexual behavior. The sexual interactions with sexual victims in sexual offending are often viewed as problematic. In this case, the victim is incapable of mutuality given that he targets children (Efta & Freeman, 2004).

Prior offenses and other general criminology factors are important predictors of potential to re-offend. An individual who has previously engaged in sexually violent conduct is more likely to re-offend. Repeat offenses and reconviction for new sex offense are often considered to be important predictors of recidivism. The individual in this case had previously engaged in child molestation. Criminal history variables are often used to predict sexual recidivism. The idea is that past criminal history is a strong predictor of future behavior. Prior convictions for sexual violence are a predictor of future sexual crimes. Literature on predictors of sexual offending address issues of previous convictions. However, the prediction of recidivism amongst sexual offenders can be complex (Langevin et al., 2004).As a group, persons with previous convictions for sex crimes have higher rates of sexual recidivism compared to those without a previous sex crime conviction. Individual who molest children outside of the family record higher rates recidivism over time. The overall recidivism rate for sex offenders is considered to be lower than that of other criminal groups. However, sex offenders are also involved in arrest or conviction for other non–sex crimes as well as new sex offenses (Vitacco et al., 2009).

The type of victims selected by sexual offenders is an important indicator of recidivism. Research suggests that individuals who offended against exclusively against male children or against a wide range of types of victim have higher risk of reoffending. Accordingly, sexual preference for children, particularly male children is strong predictors of sexual recidivism (Christiansen & Vincent, 2013). The risk of repeat offense is higher for those sexual offenses committed against unrelated children. Individuals with prior sexual abuse against children outside their family pose a greater risk for further sexual molestation. Many offenders convicted of abusing children outside the family often have previous convictions for a sexual offences compared to individuals who abused children within the family (Christiansen & Vincent, 2013).

Extra-familial sexual offenders are more likely to have served prior sentence for the same crime. However, such findings should be weighed against the likelihood that extra-familial abuse is more likely to be reported and detected. The reason being that seriousness of the offence differs as incest is considered to be less life-threatening compared to random sexual abuse. Random sexual abusers of children commit impetuous, impulsive and primarily violent acts without control or consideration. They often have prior records of delinquency and sexual abuse features in their backgrounds. They have adult criminal records and have previously been convicted several times or have one prior conviction for sexual offences. The individual in this case is Extra-familial child molesters with a degree of sexual preoccupation with children. These factors predict sexual recidivism as most individuals who commit repeat sexual offences have similar characteristics. These are a factor in increased risk of recidivism amongst child molesters (Knighton et al., 2014).

The characteristics of the sexual offender are more similar to repeat sexual offenders who have previously committed a sexual offence. For repeat sexual offenders, the characteristics indicate an increase in the likelihood of future offending. Probably the most important predictors for the individual are prior offenses, sexual deviance and choice of victims. Additionally, the self confessed attraction is also a predictor of intentions to commit further sexual offenses. In the case, the individual has a history of similar types of offences. This also predicts a higher rate of offending. The relevance of the individuals’ previous offence history is repeated throughout literature. While most offenders do not necessarily specialize, those who commit a sexual offence in the past are more likely to do so again. For this individual, sexual deviancy was often a significant indicator of risk. Compared to the offender in the second case, multiple victims and related victims consistently indicate higher risk. Additionally, the individual has been convicted of sexual offense on more occasions compared to the offender in the second case.

Conclusion
An attempt to understand why recidivism occurs is constructive in developing intervention measures. The case shows a number of consistent patterns that provide useful indicators of risk. The individual in this case is Extra-familial child molesters with a degree of sexual preoccupation with children. The type of victims selected by sexual offenders is an important indicator of recidivism. Often, the individuals who offend exclusively against male children have a higher risk of reoffending. The relevance of the individuals’ previous offense history is repeated throughout literature. Repeat offenses and reconviction for a new sex offense are often considered to be important predictors of recidivism. The individual in this case had previously engaged in child molestation. Criminal history variables are often used to predict sexual recidivism. The idea is that past criminal history is a strong predictor of future behavior. For this individual, sexual deviancy was often a significant indicator of risk. Recidivistic sexual offenders have a deviant schema that eases the commission of repeat offense. The open confession by the individual, in this case, provides a fertile ground for maintenance of deviant sexual behavior. In this case, the potential victim, a young male is incapable of mutuality. Additionally, the self-confessed attraction is also a predictor of intentions to commit further sexual offenses. The individual openly confesses of his attraction towards a potential victim. The second case lacks significant indicators of repeat sexual offense in future.

Medicine and health psychology

How genetics will change medicine and health psychology
One of the valuable lessons gained from the chapter “How genetics will change medicine and health psychology” by McCaffrey, is the promising nature of personalized medicine in identifying the genes that predict certain complex diseases. Tailored medical treatment based on a person’s gene or simply the use of genetic or genomic information will be able to provide more accurate disease diagnosis and prognosis for certain illnesses as well as develop medicines appropriate for each gene. Personalized medicine will also enhance early healthy behavior change since it will enable early warning of a disease risk before its onset through the use of genotype information.

This technology gets based on the numerous kinds of illnesses which studies have confirmed a genetic association. These diseases include diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancer, autoimmune diseases, gastrointestinal and neuropsychiatric diseases. Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is one of the diseases that get prevented through personalized behavioral medicine. The use of genetic testing could identify early in advance individuals with elevated T2D risk factors thus caution them. Genetic testing for T2D could identify people at increased risk of the disease before they become obese and for obese persons identify the increased risk before they develop impaired glucose tolerance. These circumstances are reversible through behavioral and lifestyle interventions such as increased physical activity, controlled diet and pharmacological treatment with metformin; hence enhancing T2D prevention. Suls, Davidson & Kaplan (2010), states that TCF7L2 (a microsatellite marker in the transcription factor 7-like 2 gene) has a consistent association with risk for T2D. TCF7L2 got replicated in groups that include Caucasian, Asian and African population thus could get used in predicting diabetes. Lifestyle intervention got identified as the effective approach of minimizing overall diabetes since it reduces the risk for T2D and also deters the genetic risks for T2D conferred by rs7903146.

Through the use of the technology, it will be possible to tailor pharmaceutical treatment. According to Suls, Davidson & Kaplan (2010), breast cancer chemotherapeutic trastuzumab (Herceptin), is a perfect example of a medicine tailored to a genetic diagnosis. This medicine that uses genetic information targets a protein that gets overexpressed on breast cancer cells in most breast cancer patients. Tailored medical treatment in medicine will enhance effectiveness and safety of treating complex diseases. Tailoring of pharmaceutical drugs has enabled the use of direct target pharmacological interventions for treatment of complex illnesses.

Both genetic and behavioral factors significantly influence the risk of a disease. Thus behavioral and genetic interventions would be effective means of disease prevention. Behavioral changes to prevent lung cancer such as quitting smoking lacked smoking cessation intervention. Genetic testing is thus more effective than behavioral interventions since it can increase fear of arousal and motivation of behavioral change. A comprehensive understanding of the combined effects of genetic and behavioral factors is significant for understanding the role of personalized behavioral medicine. Another critical challenge is the correct interpretation of genetic test results since it requires both basic health literacy and an understanding of the mathematical concepts.

The personalized medicine technology, however, gets faced with various challenges concerning defining a genetic test. The challenges include the number of genes to include in a clinical genetic test, how to define risk based on this test, the extent of risk to necessitate for genetic test and the particular populations that are fit for the genetic test. When using the technology of genetic testing, it is also important to ensure that valid genetic test results get acquired. It is because genotyping errors are common and should get prevented as much as possible especially when giving clinical feedback to patients or research participants based on the information obtained.

After an individual obtains valid genetic results, it is vital to consider the benefits risk ration according to the type of results obtained. The genetic results may be beneficial for both the persons who test positive and those who test negative. A person who tests positive can adapt health behavioral change in an attempt to minimize the risk and also could seek advanced medical screening to identify emerging disease. The positive can also make appropriate plans regarding medical and financial aspects. A valid negative genetic test is beneficial to the person if it reaffirms their commitment to behavior change. However, accurate genetic results also may cause more harm than good to persons who test positive or negative. A person who tests positive may encounter risks such as fatalism and get affected psychologically concerning the condition, as well as a negative impact on the belief that changing behavior can minimize their disease risk. A valid negative genetic test to a person may affect them negatively since individuals feel relieved and hence reduce their motivation for behavioral change thus increasing their disease risk. The kind of genetic test received may also be subjected to illegal discrimination in various decision making such as health insurance and employment decisions.

Personalized medicine and tailored medical treatment are significant advances in the field of medicine. These technologies using genetic information promise increase in a healthy population by predicting disease risk factors as well as improve effectiveness and safety of treatment by allowing the application of direct target pharmacological interventions.

Exams and Questions

Question 1
Good answers may include; I have born as well as gained qualities of leading, delegating and coaching and direct. I have read the job demands, and I understand that the firm needs a manager who can effectively manage a team and deliver targets too. My professional record, education job achievements, as well as qualification, prove my abilities as a manager. I possess the desired educational qualification; skill sets as well as prior experience in similar capacity. I am an extrovert person and hence, able to get well with diverse people be it at the team level, current customers or new ones.

Bad answers may include; I have a bachelor’s degree in Management. I always dream to be a boss. I just like getting jobs getting done. I want a job that earns me respect. I want a job which is highly paying. I am very strict and I always never compromise laziness on work. I am qualified to take the job. From the good answers, it is predictable that the person has a person and willing to work with team members for the interest of the organization. The person is likely to buy into the ideas of the organization. Contrary, the person giving wrong answers is seen to have future problems as a leader. He seems a manager who will not listen to the juniors. He is also seen as somebody with pride which can negatively affect the work

Question 4
Some of the challenges faced by supervisors while initiating new workflow in the department include; Increased grumbles by employees, resistance from some employees, reduced production in that period, and demand by employees to maintain the status quo. Such changes in the workspace are not always in vain. Some of the reasons for reshuffle include accommodating new employees, an organization based on a line of duty, facilitating mentorship and training, reducing conflicts among employees, reducing workplace boredom, promoting productivity as well as introducing new functions in the department. While carrying reorganization, supervisors need to avoid bias in the changes and change resistance among departmental members. There is also need to avoid improper mixing of employees and lowering working morale of employees. Avoiding such pitfalls is critical in ensuring that the transition is without employee friction.

Question 7
During my long holiday, I got a job as a supervisor in a bakery. The worst part of it was that some of my team members would get sick or get some emergencies forcing them to be absent at the job. We always quarreled with our customers whose targets were not met because of absenteeism. I remember the company losing three greatest customers for another bakery because of inability to meet their orders. With management knowledge, I had acquired over the term coupled with full responsibility as a supervisor, I decided to reshuffle the whole team. Since I had a team of 70 employees, I decided to divide them into two groups of 30 each. The remaining 10 were to be my standby team. I strategized the whole team to ensure that every person at one time becomes a member of standby team. This approach ensured that whenever an employee had an emergency, the standby force was ready to keep the work going. A mere development of standby force saved the company and returned lost customers. It was the time I realized that standby force as an organization strategy is critical in ensuring continuity at the workplace.

Continuity planning project

Internal Memorandum
To: All Department Heads
From: Operational Manager
Re: Preparation for the first meeting of the company continuity planning team.

The company operations should be protected and prevented from any action that may render the failures to the meeting of the daily activities. It requires the management to speed up the process of implementing the company continuity plan that will provide the guidance to the securing of the company entities. The continuity plan is essential to our company since it is a key element that provides support to good governance as a demand from most regulators and stakeholders within the company. The plan extends to meeting and ensuring compliance with the international standards from which a company should operate within. Company continuity guarantees some protection to the company data and some relative identities of the company. Therefore, the company requires a proper business continuity plan to avoid the breaching of the data protection legislation defined within the company (Burtles, 2007).

We take to inform that the company is scheduled to undertake an exercise of appointing representatives from each department to the business continuity planning team. The appointment of the representatives will take into consideration the following effects; the departments should present an individual of following desirables (Fulmer, 2008);

The eligible candidates should have a good understanding of the company core process and the overall company management
The candidate should possess some good leadership’s skills as well as deployment of the teamwork; we also request to you consider the quality of both verbal and written communication of the candidates
The candidate must prove the experience and possession of in Information Technology and information security skills
The presented individual must express some strong project management capabilities and be a well-respected person within the company
The heads of department should identify some individuals within their departments and forward the names for discussion during the meeting. May we have a thought on some other relevant and desirable qualities for our team because the task ahead of the team is critical and require very sensitive and promising personnel for the duties exercised in the company continuity plan.

During the meeting, the attendants will examine, propose and identify the roles to be played by the continuity planning team. However, the roles should capture and address the test facilitators prior implementing the plan, the suggested participants, the business stakeholders, management, recorders and other defined roles. Before the meeting, it is the urge of the management through the operational department to have the departments’ heads brainstorm on other roles apart from the following roles (Goh, 2006);

The test facilitators will be expected to be responsible for ensuring the sessions is in order, and the, actions are taken smoothly, introduce some creativity of roadblocks and worst case scenarios while undertaking the test. They should make sure that all issues to be addressed are recorded as they keep the schedule of the session and ensure that the follow-up activities and time frames are well discussed and prepared.
The recovery team goes by representing the persons that undertake some roles that are relevant to the selected scenario. They will be expected to have the following in condition, reviewing of the business continuity plan before the undertaking of the test and in normal happen of an event, disaster. Brainstorm and discuss to identify the appropriate best actions to be undertaken during the undertaking of the test or the recovery process within the company.
Company employees’ Skills Inventory

May this come to the attention that the Human Resource department will have to conduct some skill inventory so as to have the identification of the most possible reliable and skilled personnel whom we can have them involved in the business continuity planning team. It is important to note that the exercise shall come before the hold of the meeting in preparation to the identifying of the company continuity planning team. The exercise goes by to have the identification of the potential candidates with the desirable skills, have the company determine what kind of training should be conducted to impact the missing skills within the employees and many other relevant benefits of conducting skills inventory within the company (Anonymous, 2002).

The first meeting agenda
The department heads should be informed that the agenda for the first meeting is under development and shall receive the agenda documents some two weeks before the hold of the meeting. It is our prayer and request that we take to consider the information in the agenda paper and hold to respect the information contained.

The company wishes to thank for the good work you are doing for the best of results it is holding. It is the prayer that we keep up with the same tone and remain focused to the meeting of the company goals. Thank you for your time as you plan to respond to the outlined activities in the documents.

First meeting of the company continuity planning team agenda
AGENDA
First Meeting of the Company continuity planning team
9.00 a.m. – 5.00 p.m.

The meeting was called by Company Operational Manager

Attendees: All Department heads
Please bring:
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_________________________________________________________________________

9.00 a.m. – 10.00 a.m. Introduction

Breakfast and socializing Board room

___________________________________________________________________________

10.00 a.m. – Noon Presentation of the department representative’s names for vetting Board room

____________________________________________________________________________

Noon – 1.00 p.m. Lunch Board room

____________________________________________________________________________

1.00 p. m. – 4.00 p.m. Develop the business continuity planning team roles and responsibilities Board room

__________________________________________________________________________

4.00 p.m. – 5.00 p.m. Tea break and adjourning the meeting Board room

___________________________________________________________________________

Please let us keep time and be organized during the meeting.
Thank you all.
Continuity planning team budget draft
The budget will take duration of 12 months in the capture of the continuity planning team meetings, the required materials, training expenses, testing cost and the set-aside figure for the case of the disaster.

Budget Draft

Item cost ($000)

Team meeting 1200

Remunerations 1500

Team materials 3500

Trainings 2000

Plan testing cost 1500

Disaster cost 10000

Miscellaneous 1000

The budget estimation goes by ensuring that anticipated event is allocated some higher amount as it will entail a lot. At the same time, the continuity planning team must be given some incentives to give them the heart and an assurance that the company appreciates their efforts. The training is critical as the team must get the high skills of handling the scenarios and it goes by providing them the most sophisticated facilities to fasten and easy their work of securing the company data. The budget is under adjustments depending on the relevant factors and suggestions from the management.